Generally, the initial mass care estimate is developed by the MC/EA Coordinator and is provided to the Mass Care group to support planning for Mass Care activities.
The initial estimate is a product of these four factors:
- Information from multiple sources.
- Affected population (number of people affected by intensity).
- Level of Impact (Incident intensity – level of destruction in the impacted area).
- Geography of the event (which jurisdictions are affected).
Although there are various methods a jurisdiction can use to calculate or estimate the human and material resources required for an effective distribution operation, a detailed process for preparing an initial estimate, with disaster-specific examples, can be found on the National Mass Care Strategy * website at www.nationalmasscarestrategy.org.
The initial estimate must be completed no later than 24 hours before a notice event or within 12 hours of a no-notice event. These time frames are critical because the completed initial estimate becomes the basis for resource acquisition decisions. The initial assessment determines the answers to the following four questions:
- How big is the disaster? Defining the scale of the disaster allows planners to determine mass care resource requirements. For mass care, the scale of the disaster is a function of the land area, the intensity of the event, and the population. The land area is defined as those parts of the jurisdiction affected by the disaster. The event’s intensity further subdivides the land area into high-, medium-, and low-impact areas (see Table 1). Finally, the planner determines the total population affected by each intensity level.
- What ESF# 6 resources are required for the identified scale of the disaster? Once the mass care planners develop these estimates, they are adopted (with necessary modifications) on the State Mass Care Conference Call.
- Can the Local/State government and NGOs provide the required resources? A Resource Status Report shows available resources and the estimated number of resources from outside the disaster area, route, or on-call. With this information, the mass care planner can determine if there is enough capability to meet the requirements identified in Question #2.
Are Federal resources required to augment the Local/State and NGO resources? If the required level of mass care resources exceeds the capabilities of the local/State governments and NGOs, the State Mass Care Coordinator takes action to alleviate the shortfalls through Federal channels.
| Impact Level | Factors |
| High | Structural damage to buildings characteristic of a Category 4/5 hurricane, Mercalli Intensity earthquake levels of X/XI/XII, or F3 or greater tornado damage. Major Flood Stage > 14 days; Record Flood Stage > 40 years. Up to 80% or more of customers are without power. Up to 50% or more of Potable Community Public Water Systems are inoperable. The wastewater collection system is NOT providing wastewater treatment by permit conditions and regulations. |
| Medium | Structural damage to buildings is characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, Mercalli Intensity earthquake level of IX, or F2 tornado damage. Flood Stage > seven days; Record Flood Stage > 20 years. Up to 50% or more customers are without power. Up to 30% of Potable Community Public Water Systems are inoperable. The wastewater collection system properly conveys and provides wastewater treatment but at a compromised capacity. |
| Low | Structural damage to buildings is characteristic of a Category 1/2 hurricane, Mercalli Intensity earthquake levels of VIII, or F1 tornado damage. Flood Stage > three days. Up to 20% or more of customers are without power. More than 10% or more of Potable Community Public Water Systems are inoperable. The wastewater collection system properly conveys and provides wastewater treatment with limited disruptions. |
* The American Red Cross and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) signed a Memorandum of Agreement on October 22, 2010 that describes how FEMA and the Red Cross will work together as co-leaders of the mass care portion of Emergency Support Function #6 (ESF-6) of the National Response Framework (NRF).
Estimating Levels of Impact for use in forecasting Family Reunification resources
| Impact Level | Family Reunification Factors |
| High | Government-assisted, interstate, or intrastate general and/or medical evacuation planned or in progress. Up to 70% of the affected population with limited or no access to communications International and national media coverage of the event Primary and secondary schools, colleges, and universities are in session, and students are projected to be physically separated from and/or out of communication with parents/guardians for a period of greater than 24 hours. Shelter population greater than 20% of the affected population The number of fatalities and/or injuries overwhelms the jurisdiction’s resources. International/national or multiple special events are occurring. Peak period for seasonal population More than 25% of the affected population has cultural and language differences from the rest of the community. More than 25% of the affected population have a disability or are older residents living in their homes with or without caregivers. No notice incident |
| Medium | Government-assisted, inter-jurisdiction general and/or medical evacuation within the State planned or in progress. Up to 50% of the affected population without access to telecommunications Statewide media coverage of the event Primary and secondary schools, colleges, and universities are in session, and students are projected to be physically separated from and/or out of communication with parents/guardians for over eight hours. Shelter population > than 10% of the affected population The number of fatalities and/or injuries that stress the jurisdiction’s resources. State/regional or multiple special events are occurring. Transitional period for seasonal population More than 15% of the affected population has cultural and language differences from the rest of the community. More than 15% of the affected population have a disability or are older residents living in their homes with or without caregivers. No notice or short notice incident |
| Low | No localized general and/or medical evacuation is planned or in progress. Up to 20% of affected population without access to telecommunications Local media coverage of the event Primary and secondary schools, colleges, and universities are in session, and students are projected to be physically separated from and/or out of communication with parents/guardians for periods less than 4 hours or not in session. Shelter population < than 5% of the affected population No or limited fatalities and/or injuries. No special events occurred. More than 5% of the affected population has cultural and language differences from the rest of the community. More than 5% of the affected population have a disability or are older residents living in their homes with or without caregivers. Incident with notice |
Our software-as-service Family Reunification Service (FRS) is a key component in any Family Reunification plan. It enables your organization to respond whether it is a high, medium or low impact event.
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